Gracenote Inc., an entertainment data company and part of the Nielsen Group, has announced that its data simulations of the upcoming Football World Cup in Russia sees England with a slim 4% chance of winning the Cup. This was discovered after running hundreds of scenarios with all possible outcomes after the Group Fixtures and Schedule for the tournament were announced. The team with the estimated highest chance of winning the World Cup was Brazil, which showed a 21% chance from the simulations.
England will do well in the Group Stages, and have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out stages of the tournament. However, from the point of view of the entire tournament, their chances of winning the competition are behind countries like Spain, Argentina, Germany and Peru. Yes, the Latin American side who is currently a couple of places ahead of England in the world rankings coming into the World Cup in Russia have been calculated as having a 5% chance of winning the trophy. Gracenote has stated that these are results based on data from previous world cups, and while potentially indicative, would never be a substitute for actual performance in a tournament such as this.
Some of the other interesting results of this data simulation were the fact that there is a 47% chance that the winner of this edition of the World Cup would be a first-time winner, meaning that even though Brazil topped the list of teams that had a chance of winning the tournament, they would probably still not see this result realized.