2018 Monsoon Below Average; 91% of Forecast

As rains continue to batter parts of the country, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a statement saying that the July-September South West Monsoons have only been 91% of their predicted strength. The original prediction was that they would be at 97% of their earlier intensity. In spite of severe damage caused by the rains in states like Kerala, Karnataka, West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh, it appears that there are parts of the country that are suffering the effects of a severe decrease in rainfall. Most of these areas are in North India and key farming areas that look to this Monsoon season to be able to grow the valuable agricultural produce that fuels an estimated 14% of the country’s economy.

This over reaching prediction by the IMD marks the fifth year in a row that rains have not met predictions, and as such, the overall impact on the agricultural sector of the economy is expected to have negative consequences in the coming months. According to other sources, however, even though the rains have deposited less moisture in key areas, a combination of other weather factors are working in combination to ensure that the effects of the lack of rain are not as dire as some anticipate that they will be.

While predictions for a near-normal monsoon at the start of the year have come to naught, it is interesting to note that the intensity of the rains that have fallen in those parts that have witnessed loss of life and property damage has been far greater than in recent years.